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it doesn't. maybe we get a debt ceiling fight down the road. washington still hanging on this economy to a great degree, it means the fed -- also nowhere near the unemployment target. there's nothing in the numbers to suggest the fed would be anything but completely dovish. >> sue? >> josh is going to join the conversation now. i think basically ben set it up for us perfectly. it does seem to be the u.s. fed versus the rest of the world. and once again mr. bernanke is presented with a crisis in another part of the world which may have to influence what he does here in the united states. >> that's exactly right. cyprus is going to play a big role in how he deals with europe. i think the fed wants to be curbs. if it's going to make any kind of move, it wants that move to be successful. that's going to be a guiding principle going forward. we have to remember there's a lot of forward looking events like that debt ceiling issue which is going to crop up in the middle of may. how we handle that will influence the economy going forward. we have to think forward when we read through the fed.
're going to do the recession here first. you can see back in september 2011, when we're dealing with debt ceiling, the probability of recession by this group, 36%, fell to a low of 19% around the winter of 2012. remember when everything was being looking good, it dipped down again. the probability of recession went up again. now it's fallen again for the second straight month. 2011, 17.6%. not quite off the charts because we still have room here but it's the lowest that we've seen since we began asking this question. i don't know if we have the growth forecast chart here, guys, if we can go back to that. here are the actuals. year over year gdp, 2.6, 1.8, lackluster and picking up to a lackluster not great 2.6%. i want to share with you some views of the economy from our 54 respo respondents. firming housing prices are a game changer. there is something much more self-feeding about recovery this year. could be a turning point. the objepposite from john rober. we believe a recession/economic slowdown is a possibility in the latter half of 2014 or early in 2015. some of the excesses that co
as well if there. we've got it coming up, the debt ceiling in may, and 27th of this month, we are running out of money. we've got to extend that as well. so i think those are the opportunities where you actually have cash on the sidelines, get in. >> then there's jim lacamp. you say when the music stops, forget about looking for a chair to sit in, get out of the room altogether. why? >> there are a lot of things we have to worry about, bill and maria. this cyprus thing is going to set some really strange precedents for the rest of the periphery. what's going to happen when they re-open these banks? we don't know. are people going to pull all their money out? i think they will. that's going to spill over to spanish and portuguese banks. if you could take your money across the street and put it in a german bank, why in the heck would you leave it in a spanish bank, a greek bank, a cyprus bank? you wouldn't. >> why would that push our stock market lower there, though? >> we have a stock market, bill, that's responding the to and improving global economy. everybody has thought, oh, europe is
over the debt ceiling debate, over europe. and then a new high. i do see the s&p going to 1600 this year. probably this summer. >> really? >> then i see growing chances of a major correction that may take a couple years or may take several years. but it's clear to me u.s. demographics only get worse. we're running $2 trillion. fiscal stimulus. in qe a year to create $300 billion in gdp growth. 2% growth. that's a bad equation. >> nathan, why don't you pick it up. part of harry's argument seems to make sense. he is looking for 1600 in the s&p at some point. change your view at all? >> yeah, i know. harry has been calling for the world to come to an end for a long time. i brought my umbrella. >> what are you, mary poppins? >> i'm going to take off. look, the fact of the matter is we are actually having good news. it's hard for some people to say, really, there's fwood news? you pump $4 trillion in. you don't have the fed pulling its money out which it's not going to do any time soon. you've got to take a look at facts on the ground. we've got $900 billion sitting in money market
development, which is this idea of what will congress do when it hits the debt ceiling. you can see the past two surveys, nearly 90% of respondents think congress will raise the debt ceiling every time it's reached. let's move on to what wall street thinks -- will they consider with the sequester? yes. will it consider and change the makeup. 33% say yes. should it increase spending cuts? 21 #% said. bottom line, only 17% a year think congress should reduce the spending cuts. if you add all of this up together, what you find is a large number who believe congress should keep the plan but they want a little flexibility. how urgent is it? 80% of the march survey said congress should urgently enact a sustainable deficit plan. that has come down to 67% with 25% agreeing that it needs a little more time. that group of respondents, 54 of them market participants say that they should be reducing the deficit. here's some of the can comments. the only thing the economy has to fear is washington itself. an interesting comment. the public wants less cutting of the budget. they are seen as positive. the
's spain, there's the debt ceiling, there's fiscal cliffs, there's all of thee things. yet if you look back at this past four years the economy has continue to grow. it is what we call the plow horse economy. it is not going to fall over. it is going to keep moving forward, productivity is improving. efficiency is improving and profitability is improving. and that's what's been driving the economy and the stock market. >> one last quick comment, chad. >> it is a big "but." brian is correct that the u.s. government -- u.s. economy's improving. but we still have fundamental issues in the structure of our economy, imbalances. we are not out of the woods yet. we're not in self-sustaining recovery. we need to start to see that to become increasingly more bullish on the financial markets. >> that was really good. you're a good double act. we should have you on more. thank you both. brian and chad. have great days. >>> seven years ago today twitter co-founder jack dorsey sent the first tweet writing just setting up my twitter. since then the media giant has become a staple for millions. it has tra
Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6